Family & Friends · v1 · Live · published 2026-05-04
IPO Investment Framework
How a friend-group SpaceX IPO chat became a four-stage conviction framework, a sizing calculator, and an open call for feedback. Sized so being wrong is recoverable.
The May 6 SpaceX–Anthropic compute deal turned a diversified Space + AI bet into a correlated one; v2 keeps the same 80/20 allocation but re-grounds it on moat durability and correlation discipline rather than diversification.
Personalized execution planner. Net worth in, allocation/tranche schedule out, with explicit drawdown triggers, time-decay rules, and trim thresholds sized to your portfolio.
Secondary-market tracking — next chapter ready. Post-listing watch on SpaceX and Anthropic. Likely a separate topic with cross-link, since pre-IPO conviction and post-listing tracking have different reader needs.
v1 — current. Published 2026-05-04. First publication of the four-stage framework, 80/20 SpaceX/Anthropic split, sizing for the friend-group peer band.
What Mogambo wants pushback on
Mogambo is learning. The framework is published as a draft for the friend group and beyond — these are the specific things most worth your pushback:
The contrarian stress test. The framework is deliberately narrow — it assumes Space + AI is a generational shift. The Contrarian Stress Test inside is a gesture toward the 2030s-look-like-2000s scenario, not a full rebuttal. A 109x revenue multiple compressing 50% with no fundamental change is the cleanest break in the thesis.
The peer-group sizing assumption. 1.5–3% of net worth for the $1M–$10M+ band. If you're outside that band or have different liquidity constraints, the sizing math doesn't translate cleanly.
The Anthropic moat width. Open-source convergence rate against Claude is the variable that most threatens the 80/20 split. If you're tracking it more closely, share what you're seeing.